If Trump doesn't win the primaries, this would resolve N/A
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One more point on Rubio: He’s by far the most vetted. He ran a competitive presidential campaign, so all his dirty laundry has already been aired (and there’s not much of it). He’s also been a high profile senator for a decade. Burgum would be almost entirely irrelevant until being tapped as VP. Who’s to say that he won’t have a scandal come to light?
@FoxKHTML He's probably the best candidate for Trump to open up his campaign to the establishment wing, however, he has a complicated residence issue as explained here: https://www.thebulwark.com/p/trump-vp-shortlist-marco-rubio
@MakiseKurisu All Rubio needs to do is change his residency to DC. That’s it. He can still remain a FL senator.
@JonathanRay I agree but the explicit mention "I shouldn't be mentioning this" does make it seem plausible to me that she thinks she's playing 3D chess by trying to attract negative attention of the liberals around a story that could actually demonstrate something like will to do the necessary / empathetic toughness
@JonathanRay Completely agree that she's trying to be tactical, but I don't think this will impress many families in red states. Her later story about putting down horses is more that sort of thing, maybe, but I'm guessing most hunters and ranchers will look at this and think she just bungled the dog's training or handling. Pointing out that the kids apparently thought of it as a pet really makes her look bad to most people, too.
I think it affects her odds because if this gets any real legs, Trump will see it as undercutting the reasons he might pick her. He's already strong with the MAGA crowd. He likely wants a VP who can move the needle with swingier voters. Noem trying to prove how callous she can be by bragging about shooting the family pet doesn't really make her sound like a good fit for that role.
@Kolyin Trump in 2016 was a vulgar new york businessman who had been soft on abortion so in he picked pence partly to balance out his ticket with a christian social conservative, who is in most ways farther right than he is. But 2016 the primary was more competitive and in 2024 he doesn't need to balance out his ticket relative to the median republican so idk what his strategy, if any, would be. Perhaps a boring respectable lady VP would sway some swing voters.
@Joshua He needs to focus on his immediate threat (winning the GOP primary), but once Haley endorses him and things settle down, she'll begin to look like a very real possibility for VP. Trump called DeSantis "DeSanctimonious" until he finally dropped out. There is a chance that she simply isn't selected, but of all of the existing options, Haley would be the strongest for Trump
You know why he’s not picking Scott? The black vote won’t win him an election. 13% of the population with a historically low turnout rate. Even if he doubled his support, pulling 20%+ of black people, it wouldn’t really move the needle. The demos to focus on are Hispanics and women.
Marco Rubio would be perfect. Covers three demo weaknesses: Hispanic, young, establishment
@valeratrades I'm just very confident it's not Vivek.Trump treated him like an annoyance last night in his victory speech imo.
@Joshua Right, but how did you see the mispricing so quickly? Do you just manually constantly cycle through all the markets you have an edge on?
@valeratrades Well you left a comment which I saw when I checked my notifications
@Joshua Fun. Maybe I should just make a bot to sell to overconfident idiots like me on discrepancies from other sites, or even simpler - bets on fin markets with probability deviating from option prices... Is there any way to monetize these MANA things?