Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model in the next 12 months?
6
36
Ṁ108Ṁ110
Oct 2
58%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Taken from the State of AI Report 2023.
The GenAI scaling craze sees a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model.
This question will be resolved based on the resolution of the 2024 report.
Get Ṁ600 play money
Related questions
Sort by:
@RemNi The market is about price, not parameter count. Unless you’re claiming that we know that llama 3 cost >$1B?
1 h100 = 40k dollars
350 000 x 40 000 = 14 000 000 000
Assuming training llama 3 is 1 / 20th of the compute they will use that cluster for, and then considering all other costs beyond just the GPUs, yeah easy 1B dollars
@RemNi Thanks for the info, though I don’t think that’s convincing enough for resolution. I think it might make sense to wait for an official number or an estimate by Epoch AI before resolving.
More related questions
Related questions
Will AI have a trillion+ dollar impact by the end of 2025?
33% chance
By the end of 2025 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
38% chance
In the next 12 months will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model?
60% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
57% chance
How many billion dollar AI training runs will occur in 2024?
SoAIR '23 5/10: Will the GenAI scaling craze see a group spend >$1B to train a single large-scale model by Oct 24?
28% chance
By the end of 2027 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
51% chance
AI: Will someone train a $1B model by 2025?
61% chance
By the end of 2026 will there be a mostly AI generated game with $1 million or more in revenue?
25% chance
Will a large AI company (e.g. OpenAI) acquire an inference-focused AI chip compnay in the next 12 months?
64% chance