Biden vs Trump Polling Average - When will Biden retake the lead? (Currently Trump +1.3%)

Biden-Trump Polls US '24 Trending #US Politics #Politics #2024 US Presidential Election #Trump #Joe Biden

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Nov 7

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A third of the way into March, and both candidates are trending up. Trump is winning by 1.8 points at the moment. [image][image]

Mar 9

Now Trump +1.7 [image]

Mar 19

25%

May

23%

June

15%

July

15%

Not before Election Day

11%

August

September

October 1st - Election Day, November 5th

1.4%

April

Average will be taken from RCP 2-way average.

Trump took the lead on September 11th, and has held it since.

This market resolves to the month in which RCP is updated to show Biden in the lead, or else "Not before Election Day". Resolves based on Pacific Time if there is ambiguity. This is the date that RCP is updated, not the date the polling took place.

You can find more questions like this on the polling dashboard.

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Will Biden overtake Trump’s lead in the next NYT/Siena poll?

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Note that August will be the Democratic convention.

bought Ṁ550 April NO

Looks like April is a no barring anything wild happening. https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/28/politics/cnn-poll-trump-biden-matchup/index.html?Date=20240428&Profile=CNNPolitics&utm_content=1714306087&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter

bought Ṁ1,000 April NO

@Jason1e41 I was just about to post that!

@Joshua I got my trade in first, too 😆

sold Ṁ51 April YES

@Jason1e41 Their process for removing old polls still makes no sense to me 😂

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Vibes based poll aggregation from RCP.

Quinnipiac added (tie), back to Trump 0.3.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

Morning Consult poll added, average now Trump +0.2.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-biden

@Kolyin We’re due for a qpac poll as well

bought Ṁ300 April NO

With the NBC poll Trump’s lead could survive the last 3 polls dropping off.

sold Ṁ466 April NO

@riverwalk3 Not anymore:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Yeah I sold my NO off

Is there a reason RCP didn’t add the latest Morning Consult poll or is RGP just randomly selecting which to add and which to ignore based on vibes.

Now +0.4:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Still enough for Biden to take the lead if the last 3 drop off.

@riverwalk3 Yeah, do you know what exactly the rule is for when those will drop off?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Not sure, seems like RCP wants to keep Trump ahead. They might drop off the last 4 at a time.

new NYT/Siena poll has them one point apart.

bought Ṁ300 April YES

+0.2

@Joshua Ready the Dark Brandon memes

bought Ṁ100 April NO

Now +0.6:

bought Ṁ50 April YES

+0.3

Realistically, Biden needs to win nationally by 2pp+ to win the electoral college. My prediction is that he’ll win the popular vote pretty easily, but the swing states will be extremely close, decided by historically thin margins.

bought Ṁ10 April YES

@FoxKHTML Can't get much closer than Florida in 2000. Imagine the nightmare if it actually does come down to that few votes.

bought Ṁ77 April YES

@PlasmaBallin I mean I think it will be very close in several states. GA, AZ, and MI most likely

@FoxKHTML I agree that all the states will be close, just not as close as Florida in 2000. Even if your expectation value in some states is one candidate winning by a few hundred votes, the confidence interval on that should be so large that the chance of it actually being that close is very small.