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Strangely I never re-created this shortlist market for 2024, which in retrospect was actually the market where I think we did the best job predicting the outcome! Made one today:

Isn’t this market supposed to resolve by now?

@oh I'm mainly waiting to see if they end up adding something to the winner, like how Kamala Harris was added to Biden in 2020. I could resolve a bunch of these to yes though, because I i don't think anything eligible now should become ineligible after the announement. I'll just wait to resolve anything to NO until after the announcement.

That seem good to everyone?

@Joshua That makes sense.

Should this really resolve yes? Hollywood strikers are a subgroup of this group, but I don't think it makes sense to allow subgroups to count, otherwise by the same logic you could submit something like "The Americans" and many of these will count. And the difference is not negligible either, SAG-AFTRA stikes were also very big and aren't included in this. And then there's all the other union workers.

I think it was predictive of the choice and TIME just went with a different wording. The hollywood unions are the main thing anyone thinks about when you ask them what unions were in the news, so I see why TIME was more specific but I dont' want to penalize this prediction for that.

@Joshua does ts count for a businessperson and an artist?

@TheBayesian Taylor as businessperson + Sam Altman as escape artist and we've got this one on lock!

I'll allow this under prosecutors too, I'm turning off submissions so no more dupes tho.

@HenriThunberg

Shouldn't this fall under union workers @Joshua ?

@NicoDelon Yeah agreed

@Joshua N/A it?

I think it was predictive of the group on the shortlist, just not the exact right wording so it should resolve yes.

@Joshua Right but I’m saying N/A the Hollywood strikers answer because I added it after the fact and it’s redundant

Going to wait for the final list from TIME because things could cange.

Because I don't feel like taking up a bunch of slots with McCarthy, McHenry, Gaetz, Johnson, etc

@Marnix I'll take it, but won't count it for meta answers.

@Joshua Like for [At least 5 answers]? That seems fair to me! Who knows, there could be more than one of them on there

Ngl, I'm kinda surprised you hadn't already made this one!

@Marnix I forgot there was a shortlist!