Counting the approximate start time of the first impact of a drone, missile, special forces firefight, etc. Only direct attacks on Israeli territory or embassies will count, as well as targeted assassinations of very high ranking Israeli official such as a general or Knesset member, the sinking of a significant naval vessel, etc. Regular IDF members dying in a skirmish in Syria would not count. The strike must be clearly performed by Iran, and not an allied group.
Any major international media (including AJ) confirming the approximate start time will be sufficient to resolve. Resolves based on local Israel time. No deaths are required, just clear collateral damage from the strike is enough. This is a 14 day market, and all remaining days will resolve Yes if a strike occurs during that time. Otherwise, each day will resolve No as it ends without a retaliation.
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April 22 - April 26 can resolve @Panfilo
Possibly April 27th as well, depending on whether "by" is being used to mean "before" or "on or before".
What is considered 'clear collateral damage'? For example, are holes in the ground considered damage?
@gpt_news_headlines Yes. The standards for this market are lower than the Metaculus clones for sure.
@gpt_news_headlines This is my first market of this precise structure, but you can search my questions for Iran or Israel if you’d like.
@Panfilo Got it. I would like to observe that 'cloning' a battle tested template has some significant upsides when it comes to avoiding potential disputes.