When will there be credible evidence of an organism with a Gene Drive being released in the wild?
39
232
Ṁ1.3kṀ2.2k
2040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
18%
2024-2026
31%
2027-2029
27%
2030-2032
12%
2033-2035
6%
2036-2038
6%
This market resolves to the bucket containing the year in which there is credible evidence of an organism with a gene drive being released into a wild population, with the intent to have it spread across the majority of that organisms natural range.
I do not require it to be released by a government or NGO, a rogue scientist eradicating Malaria/WNV carrying mosquitoes with one would totally count.
I may update the resolution criteria to better fit what I understand the spirit of the market to be. I will not bet in this market.
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