Resolves YES if GPT-5 is publicly released before Jan 1, 2025; resolves NO otherwise.
Update from March 18: If the next OpenAI flagship model deviates from the GPT-N naming scheme and there will clearly be no future model named GPT-5 that is going to be released from OpenAI (e.g. they completely changed the trajectory of their naming scheme) then I will count it as "GPT-5" regardless.
However, if the next flagship model is not called GPT-5 but still conforms to the OpenAI GPT-N naming scheme (e.g. GPT-4.5) or it is implied that there will eventually be a model called GPT-5 that will be released (i.e. they are going to continue with the same naming scheme) then I will not count it as "GPT-5".
Related questions
@JonathanRay human progress in most fields was exponential so far. On the outside vièw it seems likely to take less than 3 years.
@KongoLandwalker the exponential part of the progress seems to all come from paradigm shifts. Within the same paradigm you pick the low hanging fruit first and it gets harder to make progress
@JonathanRay You say that people exponentially explore/invent new paradigms? Should we expect, that the next smartest thing will not be within gpt paradigm at all?
I mean I it takes a lot of work to improve upon GPT4 it'll take them a while to come up with something better enough to be a new product release. You can either throw exponentially increasing amounts of compute at the current paradigm to get small increases in performance, or you can invent a new paradigm but either way it's probably more than 1.7 years from GPT4 to GPT5
A little annoyed that this market did a literal 180 on its resolution criteria a week ago…
I bet exclusively on the clarification that the model would have to be named “GPT-5” and then that was reversed in the market description after the creator has previously clarified the opposite. Not sure why they would do that… @VictorLJZ ?
@benshindel why would you be annoyed by this ? its obvious what the intention of the original market was and with sam altmans comments on possibly naming gpt5 something else it was the obvious move to make. sure you lost mana but imagine how annoying it would be for others if they got gpt5 but with a different name this year and somehow lost in this market
[deleted, I misread]
@benshindel where's the 180 a week ago? The description appears to be consistent with the comments from a month ago.
They seem designed to exclude "GPT-4.5" but to include the next flagship model (IMHO it would be strange if an incremental model that plausibly could have been called GPT-4.5 were called something else, so I'm not too worried about that).
@chrisjbillington hmmm, you know I can no longer see any comments to that effect at this point. I'm not sure if there was something deleted or if the market description itself was changed? But when I placed the bet there seemed to be a consensus that if it was called something other than "GPT-5" it would resolve NO? But it's very possible I was mistaken and am mixing this up with a similar market with a different set of comments, lol
@chrisjbillington I found some tweets saying that they said /by/ early next year in the Stargate article behind the paywall. I don't trust those tweets though. I think it's a summary of a summary of a summary.
@chrisjbillington Ive seen summaries of this saying it includes an early next year timeframe for openais next big ai upgrade https://www.theinformation.com/articles/microsoft-and-openai-plot-100-billion-stargate-ai-supercomputer
but I never actually read the article because paywall so if anyone pays for theinformation and can read the source please let us know
I wanted to share my thinking on why I think gpt-5 *won't* be coming out this year.
I would love to get any feedback from people that disagree. It's very possible I may be overlooking some things, especially given the market seems to overwhelmingly think otherwise.
1. GPT-5 is confirmed to be a big step up from GPT-4 (“I expect that the delta between [GPT-]5 and 4 will be the same that was between 4 and 3 and I think it is our job to live a *few years* in the future and remember that the tools we have now are going to kind of suck, looking backward at them, and that’s how we make sure the future is better.” & https://youtu.be/jvqFAi7vkBc?t=4008 -- note the "what you'd expect from a gpt-5")
2. A more capable model = more opportunity for misuse & unintended consequences. Also leading it to take more time to red team as there is a greater "space" of possibilities that need to be convered.
3. Sam & OpenAI both know that to get to AGI & continue to lead they need institutional support (i.e. support from 'elites', government, media, financiers etc.)
4. Therefore, they can't release it before the November election. Even if the odds are low, they cannot under any circumstances risk some PR-disaster like Facebook had post-2016. The risk-reward is not worth it as, among other things, they will lose institutional support, pave the way for regulatory overreach & allow for a less-tainted competitor to take their place
5. Sam has stated (https://youtu.be/jvqFAi7vkBc?t=3874) that the general public, institutions etc. need "time to adapt" & their goal is "not to surprise people". This aligns with OpenAI's strategy with Sora (show the capabilities but don't release it to the public immediately)
5. If they announce & demo it pre-election they will run the risk of having it be overly politcized (AI is of course already politicized, but prior to an election there is a far greater incentive for politicians & the public to overreact)
Therefore, they I think they will unveil & demo it post-election & release it to the general public much later on (like they have with sora)
Which means release = sometime in 2025, not before
@elf All they really need now is to release a model that outperforms the competition in the next few months. GPT-4.5 would do that without potentially introducing any new political or safety risks.
That segment in the Fridman interview where Altman talks about the non-zero chance of being assassinated speaks to #4. Personal risk mitigation must be a driving factor for decisions made by an org like OpenAI and right now I can't think of a greater risk accelerator than crossing the doomer and political news cycle streams.
All they really need now is to release a model that outperforms the competition in the next few months. GPT-4.5 would do that without potentially introducing any new political or safety risks.
🎯
Exactly, and I think GPT4.5 is exactly what the BusinessInsider article is referring to that’s targeting a Summer release.
Interestingly, ArsTechnica received this response from OpenAI:
imo, this seems to further strengthen our argument.
Will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the coming months!
GPT-5 or GPT-4's successor supposedly will come out this summer.
Source: https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-launch-better-gpt-5-chatbot-2024-3
tldr:
- OpenAI is expected to release GPT-5, the next major version of its language model powering ChatGPT, around mid-2024, likely during the summer.
- Early feedback from enterprise customers who have seen demos of GPT-5 indicates it is "materially better" than previous versions, with new capabilities like calling AI agents for autonomous tasks.
- GPT-5 is still in training and will undergo safety testing and "red teaming" before release, which could delay the launch timeline.
@T38f3
This sounds like GPT 4.5, not GPT 5.
Sam on the Lex episode a few days ago said he "had no idea" when GPT-5 would be releasing.
But he did say there are "many different things" people will see over the coming months that are not GPT-5 & mid-2024 sounds right in line with one of those non-gpt5 "things".
Timestamp: https://youtu.be/jvqFAi7vkBc?t=4011