Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?
35
322
Ṁ10kṀ510
2025
45%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if GPT-5 is able to gain a rating of 1000 or more in Codeforces; resolves NO otherwise.
GPT-4's rating on Codeforces is 392; GPT-3.5's rating on Codeforces is 260: https://codeforces.com/blog/entry/113910
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Added this market here because I thought it could be classified as third party validated. https://manifold.markets/group/third-party-validated-predictive-ma-6bab86c0b8b0/questions
predicts NO
I think gpt-4 could do well with advanced prompting, but somehow its rating is really low. I think it all comes down to the way openai evaluates it so I put this at like 50%
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