🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Jun 1
February starts
March starts
April starts
May starts
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
99%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
99%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
92%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
89%
An American union with over 1000 members is on strike for any amount of time
82%
The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
82%
Manchester City win the FA Cup Final
81%
It's the hottest May on record in the United States
80%
This market will have fewer Traders than any of its predecessors at the end of May
78%
nvidia is above $888.00 at end of month
74%
Maria Branyas, Tomiko Itooka, and John Tinniswood are all alive during the entire month
65%
A Russian naval ship is sunk (not just a small boat)
62%
im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot removed from Huggingface battle arena
60%
Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
54%
North Korea tests a nuclear-capable rocket
54%
When the poll closes, more Manifold users than not agree with the landmark accomplishment "Did AI pass the Turing Test in The Circle?"
50%
NVIDIA reaches a new all time high stock price
48%
Any head of state/government is photographed or filmed crying
43%
Starliner reaches orbit

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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can a mod unresolve this, it was a website bug on the stat page

bought Ṁ100 Answer #f55e7eb37aa5 NO
bought Ṁ100 Answer #bab5035e6f75 NO

@strutheo it's past may 15th, resolves NO. (original release date may 3rd but it's not out yet)

bought Ṁ271 Answer #4149c1d5bb11 YES

Spice balaces reported as 10050.
I have found Joshua has 1000 https://manifold.markets/Joshua
So I think there must be at least 2 users with spice. i haven't found any others in top 30 masters or top 2 diamond.

@ChristopherRandles FWIW the 50 spice was there last week, before spice launched (not Joshua’s 1000). Not sure why

@ChristopherRandles Well spotted. @GtothaM has some as well.

Does anyone know where/why/how these people are getting it? GtothaM expresses confusion as to why they suddenly have it.

EDIT: Travis actually appears to have minus 44 for some inexplicable reason.

bought Ṁ150 Answer #3933e3cc5f93 YES

2670 May 16th

lots of other markets like this resolving yes with the release of GPT-4o
one or two resolving no so ymmv

@JoeandSeth Most of those had language specifying that a big enough update would count even if it wasn't called 4.5 (which led to debate over what counts as big enough); this one doesn't AFAICT?

bought Ṁ250 Answer #867e5ccad28b YES

@strutheo the trailer just dropped, resolves YES https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=YN2H_sKcmGw

(amusingly they waited to post it til 2 hours after the LotR teaser)

Eurovision Song Contest includes an unscripted/unapproved political statement
bought Ṁ300 Eurovision Song Cont... YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Link is poor. The singer from Portugal has her nails painted in keffiyeh print.

@ClubmasterTransparent I can see this going either way, but speaking as myself and not as the question maker, I just don't think "love beats hate" or "peace will win" are political statements. They're too vague and safe, even if we might infer what the person could have been referring to. "Free Palestine" or "Russia out of Georgia" or "Trans rights in [country name]" would have been an easy Yes.

@Panfilo Fair, but the keffiyeh nails?

@ClubmasterTransparent I'd be happy to leave it up to @strutheo if the nail flash counts as an "unscripted/unapproved political statement"

tough call ill look later, maybe 50% idk yet

Wasn't this added after the fact? It was added 5 hours ago, when the solar storm had already hit.

@MugaSofer i cant NA anymore... rip.

this is going to be annoying on ulmc mc markets @Joshua

@MugaSofer The solar storm had already hit but at the time the question was added it had only reached a G4 classification I believe

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