🌼What will happen in May 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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Jun 1
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May starts
May 1
99%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.2%
Joe Biden is alive for the entire month
98.1%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
98%
A G5 class solar storm hits the Earth
98%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
97%
At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
94%
$500 in mana sold in a single day during the month
88%
An American union with over 1000 members is on strike for any amount of time
75%
The Myanmar resistance forces will gain territory on the map on this page: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Myanmar_civil_war_(2021%E2%80%93present)
75%
This market will have fewer Traders than any of its predecessors at the end of May
74%
a tesla catches fire as reported by mainstream news or https://www.tesla-fire.com/
73%
Manchester City win the FA Cup Final
66%
A trailer for House of the Dragon season 2 releases
63%
It's the hottest May on record (based on global average temperature)
60%
At least 3 different colleges/universities announce some sort of divestment from Israel
59%
nvidia is above $888.00 at end of month
54%
When the poll closes, more Manifold users than not agree with the landmark accomplishment "Did AI pass the Turing Test in The Circle?"
47%
Maria Branyas, Tomiko Itooka, and John Tinniswood are all alive during the entire month
46%
Joe Biden leaves the United States for any amount of time
41%
im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot removed from Huggingface battle arena

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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bought Ṁ300 Answer #4adc3c4c8303 YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Link is poor. The singer from Portugal has her nails painted in keffiyeh print.

@ClubmasterTransparent I can see this going either way, but speaking as myself and not as the question maker, I just don't think "love beats hate" or "peace will win" are political statements. They're too vague and safe, even if we might infer what the person could have been referring to. "Free Palestine" or "Russia out of Georgia" or "Trans rights in [country name]" would have been an easy Yes.

@Panfilo Fair, but the keffiyeh nails?

@ClubmasterTransparent I'd be happy to leave it up to @strutheo if the nail flash counts as an "unscripted/unapproved political statement"

tough call ill look later, maybe 50% idk yet

A G5 class solar storm hits the Earth

Wasn't this added after the fact? It was added 5 hours ago, when the solar storm had already hit.

@MugaSofer i cant NA anymore... rip.

this is going to be annoying on ulmc mc markets @Joshua

@MugaSofer The solar storm had already hit but at the time the question was added it had only reached a G4 classification I believe

bought Ṁ50 Answer #ae8f678c1431 YES
bought Ṁ50 Answer #434fc3ac1aa9 YES

If one more person trades on this it'll reach 100 (so grab your little bit of free mana)

/TenShino/will-a-palestinian-flag-be-visible

bought Ṁ50 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO

According to the linked market, Tumbles doesn't have any loans due until July.

opened a Ṁ69,696 Answer #0072f6fe7cef NO at 2% order

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Want to give me one due this month?

@strutheo resolves NO, mystik dan was BAY

@strutheo resolves NO, Mystik Dan first letter M

@strutheo resolves NO

bought Ṁ289 Answer #d52855e9dd22 YES

Resolves YES (Solomon Islands)

Does this count? https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/01/google-cuts-hundreds-of-core-workers-moves-jobs-to-india-mexico.html

As far as I can tell, the layoffs were announced internally last week, but didn't become public knowledge until May 1st. They still haven't been publicly announced, though, so I guess we need to wait for that.

yea will wait more

peloton just laid off 15%, might count that too

@strutheo Makes sense. I heard about Peloton too, but I wasn't sure if they count as a tech company.

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