Will I hit my weight goal before my trip?
40
1.3k
530
resolved May 16
Resolved
YES

This resolves YES if I measure my weight at 160.0 lbs or less on May 16th 2024 ET, otherwise NO.

5'7" and 186.4 lbs at time of posting. I will only buy YES and I will not sell my position.


At time of posting (Jan 30) I weigh 186.4. My scale displays in 0.2 lbs increments.

I just got a body fat caliper and measured at 30.4%BF, meaning 160 lbs would be about 19%BF. I don't know how accurate my reading was but 30% seems right, visually.

I started logging my weight when I tried to do this for my last trip (Jan 2-18) but failed midway and gained most of it back. This market only resolves based on the last day so I need to keep it off.

I want to lose this weight so I can walk a lot with feet pain and not be as hot throughout the trip, so I will be very disappointed if I don't get pretty close.

I mainly focus on having a large calorie deficit. I hope I will exercise but I'm not sure how consistently I'll do it.

I'm cutting the embed to just this attempt, but the sheet has data back to october and I should be updating it daily. Values with yellow highlighting are interpolated.

Link to Google Sheet

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Should this market be unlisted? I think personal goal markets usually are, but maybe the policy has changed

@Fion most of them that I've seen are ranked but it'd make sense with the guidelines. Only a mod or admin could unrank it so feel free to contact one and they can handle as they see fit

Resolving just in time before donations get shut off and the resolution criteria have been met!

@wan will you resort to extreme measures these last three days or maintain the same approach ?

@LeonardoKr nothing I'd really call extreme. Low sodium and carbs, weighing between exercise and drinking.

bought Ṁ80 NO

@LeonardoKr I'd bet real money he's dropping water weight to win. Fair given the resolution criteria, but he'll pop back above the target weight almost immediately. Shrug.

@RomeoStevens sorry my reply wasn't explicit but that's what I meant, sodium and carbs being big factors for water retention. I was implying 2lb doesn't require anything extreme

bought Ṁ50 YES

@wan @RomeoStevens considering the high stakes approach only you two are taking in this market, one unsuspecting question: do you guys know each other?

@LeonardoKr nah, I just couldn't find any interesting markets. I learned some interesting things messing about on the platform but I don't necessarily want to spend much time here going forward, so I figured I'd either lose it all and quit or win it all, donate it to charity and quit.

bought Ṁ50 YES

Doable if you stay comitted, good luck!

first day I forgot to weigh myself in the morning. i'm not putting it in the chart but 169.6 rn

@wan things are both looking good (down 20 pounds in two months, with 10 pounds to go in the next two months) for you, and you're probably looking good :P

Exercise should be a little easier now than it was before!

@RobertCousineau Yes! Now that the weather is warming up, I'm excited to bike with 40 fewer pounds of cargo

@wan I am the wind.

Impressive work over the last week!

@RobertCousineau thank you!

opened a Ṁ500 YES at 85% order

Pushing to 85% for more NO incentive. I do think P is lower than this

bought Ṁ33 of YES

I set a limit order for 1000 at 75%

edit: thank you for the NO bets, adding another 1000