Manifest 2024 Prop Bets

Manifest #Manifold #Prop Bets #Manifest #Manifest 2024

129

1.7k

Ṁ23k

Ṁ16k

Jun 10

ALL

94%

two or more people wear jimmy carter pins

96%

Go (game) is played physically in person

96%

Chess is played physically in person

32%

Physical spice (seasoning, hot sauce, whatever) is used by a speaker to symbolize or represent Spice from Manifold

66%

This market hits second place in 24 hour volume (screenshot)

72%

A group of five or more people break into song

83%

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

49%

Grey goo / nanoweapon X-risk is discussed by a speaker

90%

A black person attends

96%

Poker is played physically in person

17%

At least one Juggalo in full make-up is present for any amount of time

39%

Multiple people bring/buy/sell plushies related to the Effective Altruism, Rationality/LessWrong, SlateStarCodex/AstralCodexTen, or Manifold communities e.g. plush shoggoth

91%

A new product or startup will be announced by an attendee

97%

There will be a large group photo

50%

There will be a plant that glows in the dark

10%

Someone publicly vomits

70%

Someone will do a backflip

44%

Somebody wears something that causes an argument over whether or not it counts as a fursuit

52%

An action that most people would prefer not happen will happen specifically because of market incentives from this option, or the previous option this one is based on (the one submitted by @Nikos ).

83%

Someone wears a partial fursuit publicly

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

Add anything that you think would be

Fun to predict, might or might not happen
Reasonably simple to track whether it happened or not (nothing too hard to count)
Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

I intend to attend, and I'll resolve everything I can. But any staff or mods are welcome to resolve any options as well, as prop bet markets are hard for any one person to manage.

Market close will be extended as necessarily if the dates change.

For markets about who will attend, I've made this market:

/Joshua/which-users-will-attend-manifest-20

There's also this for just special guests:

/DanMan314/who-will-be-a-special-guestspeaker

Get Ṁ600 play money

Related questions

Who will win poker at Manifest 2024?

🎪Manifest Bingo: What will I experience at Manifest 2024 if I go? [ADD RESPONSES]

Which users will attend Manifest 2024?

If there is an orgy at manifest 2, will I be invited?

48% chance

What will happen in Norway Chess tournament? Prop Bets

Who Will I Debate at Manifest?

Will the second Manifest be better than the first?

55% chance

Will anyone be banned or uninvited from the next Manifest conference due to threats from other potential attendees?

33% chance

[Unlinked multiple choice, anyone can add] Who will get invited to an orgy at Manifest 2?

Will there be an orgy at manifest 2?

Sort by:

There will be a plant that glows in the dark

bought Ṁ10 There will be a plan... NO

I have one of those firefly petunias and while it's a plant that's supposed to glow in the dark, it in fact does not glow in the dark

bought Ṁ10 Answer #dccbbaa3142f NO

still open for market manipulation

I came here to bet on ‘@Stralor eats ass 🍑’ and am disappointed that it’s not listed.

@snazzlePop probably because of

Respects people's privacy (Let people make their own "will I get laid" markets, don't make one for them)

but I've got a public market on it, and S G himself added "Manifests" to the count list. fair game to add if you want, no complaints from me!

@Stralor I’m surprised that you hadn’t already added it yourself! But alas, the market is closed to new answers.

bought Ṁ20 Answer #68bd808c2fa2 YES

@snazzlePop wasn't sure I was attending until a couple days ago

A conspicuous orb is held by at least three people simultaneously

Is there a minimum size? Does it need to glow to count?

A group of five or more people break into song

Manifest 2024 will take place June 7th to June 9th in Berkely California. This market is for prop bets about the event! Note that all bets are about the conference itself and not the summer camp.

some pretty obscure things entering the props today and this one really doesn't meet the criteria so should NA?

@Joshua

Hmmm yeah I'm okay with some options here about manifold-relevant news breaking during manifest but I don't want this to turn into "what will happen anywhere in the world from June 7th to June 9th".

@Panfilo can you edit that one to something manifest related?

@Joshua if they're pivoting into global warfare and that option becomes relevant, I'll send M500 to @Panfilo as an apology

@Joshua Too late to edit but do whatever you want

@shankypanky I already saw an orgy, is that at the conference like as a seminar?

@Panfilo if it happens, then yes, but more like a workshop I think?

(and unless Manifest attendees are themselves responsible for a coup, military ceasefire, or world leader assassination, one could easily argue it's more directly relevant for attendees to have an orgy)