21
223
3.8k
2025
91%
10/31 Halloween
91%
12/25 Christmas
90%
11/05 U.S. Election Day
75%
11/28 Thanksgiving
66%
06/07-06/09 Manifest
60%
07/04 U.S. Independence Day
57%
12/21 Winter Solstice (or winter in general)
54%
07/26 - 08/11 Paris Olympics
50%
06/** Pride Month
49%
12/31 New Year's Eve
31%
06/20 Summer Solstice (or summer in general)
19%
09/22 Fall equinox (or fall in general)
15%
06/19 Juneteenth
12%
10/14 Columbus Day and/or Indigenous People's Day
12%
05/15 The Pivot release
12%
09/02 Labor Day
10%
10/07 - 10/14 Nobel Prize announcements
9%
11/01 - 11/02 Day of the Dead
7%
11/11 Veterans Day/Armistice Day
7%
06/16 Father's Day

Resolves YES for all events which cause Manifold to temporarily change the logo displayed on the top left of the site to be themed after the event. The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons). The dates listed are also subject to change if the event could be rescheduled (e.g., the first U.S. presidential debate). If an event is canceled, it resolves N/A.

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any pivot logo change bets?

This can resolve NO

This can resolve NO

bought Ṁ10 11/28 Thanksgiving YES

election day for sure

bought Ṁ150 Answer #96306c502ebb YES

@PlasmaBallin apparently we got 2 logo changes in 2 days.

I am going to buy so much YES shares in this market!

sold Ṁ13 Answer #96306c502ebb YES

Our first positive resolution. I wonder if this decreases the probability that April Fool's Day resolves YES since they might not want to introduce a new logo two days in a row.

bought Ṁ35 Answer #d77877ea49b7 YES

bought Ṁ120 Answer #695f19551b5d NO

Resolve NO?

@RS This one doesn't resolve NO, note in the description:

The logo change does not necessarily have to happen on the exact date(s) listed if the event takes multiple days or is associated with a longer time period (e.g., the seasons)

@RS The date is just there so you can easily order things by using the A-Z sort

sold Ṁ144 Answer #695f19551b5d NO

@PlasmaBallin ah gotcha, thanks

10/31 Halloween

Wrong date @PlasmaBallin

@nikki whoops

Can resolve NO?

bought Ṁ200 Answer #ecfd7db4687a NO

Can resolve NO?

bought Ṁ100 Answer #4e7b6167418f NO

Can resolve NO?

bought Ṁ200 Answer #78b23aa083f5 NO

The logo isn't changed currently, so this will almost surely resolve NO. Unless they are only planning on changing it in the evening.

.

bought Ṁ30 Answer #38a680ee00ac NO

Several of them can resolve already, right? (Groundhog day, blue Monday)

@Ramble I'm going to N/A those because they passed before the market was created.

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