🐣What will happen in April 2024? [ADD RESPONSES]
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May 1
January starts
Jan 2
February starts
Feb 1
March starts
Mar 1
April starts
Apr 1
99.6%
Eliezer Yudkowsky remains unwavering that the probability of AI annihilation is greater than or equal to 95%
99.2%
Eliezer Yudkowsky is alive for the entire month
98.6%
Bryan Johnson is alive for the entire month
98%
The "No Labels" candidate for President fails to poll higher than 15% for the entire month
98%
No motion to vacate the chair in the House is voted upon
95%
It's the hottest April on record globally
74%
Manifold Masters league is won by someone who has never won before
45%
The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves
27%
NFL, MLB, or NBA player arrested for DUI
23%
the '500 poll' on manifold reaches 180 responses
16%
On April 30, 2024, at 11:59:59pm EDT, Anthropic retains the lead in most intelligent coding model (highest in HumanEval) (model must be publically available)
15%
the top meme in memefold is made by stefanie OR chris
14%
Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza
13%
mkbhd's rabbit r1 review releases on youtube
12%
ddos disrupts availability of a "similarweb top 50" website
11%
Any of the songs covered in Joker 2 are explicitly revealed
11%
two teslas catch fire as reported by tesla-fire.com or other news
11%
The IDF's Rafah ground invasion officially begins
10%
At least one person in North America is hospitalized with bird flu (H5N1).
10%
Dwarf Fortress Adventure Mode releases

I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.

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At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
bought Ṁ970 At least five XKCD c... NO

3 or 4 depending whether you count blobs but not 5. No more expected.

The MLB team that wins the most games is the Dodgers or Braves

Is this total wins or wins in April?

@ChadCotty total wins this season or total wins ever? How could either be considered to "happen in April 2024"?

@ChristopherRandles I’d agree it should go by who has won the most games in April (without including any wins in March)

sold Ṁ131 The MLB team that wi... NO

@ChadCotty By my count the Phillies have 18 wins and the Braves have 17 wins so far in April.

@ChadCotty I think your count is a bit old - the Braves, Yankees, Phillies, and Guardians are all tied at 19 wins in the latest standings.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Oh, I see, you're only counting April.

@strutheo I guess the only remaining question would be how it resolves if the Braves are tied with another team for the most wins in April at the end of the month. cc @AlexanderMiller

@ChadCotty I meant only counting April. And if the Braves are tied in wins I would count that as a YES.

MrBeast surpasses 255 million subscribers on YouTube

Just to clarify, does this resolve once he gets 255,000,001 subscribers?

@ChadCotty SocialBlade has him at 255 million now.

bought Ṁ100 MrBeast surpasses 25... YES

@ChadCotty yup he's over

14 days aho it was said:
chris (strutheo) 14d

@ChristopherRandles i assumed 255,000,001 before end of april @Panfilo

1

Panfilo 14d

@strutheo Eastern time preferably

Adam Something uploads more than 2 videos
bought Ṁ1,570 Adam Something uploa... YES

@ChristopherRandles @strutheo @chrisjbillington "More than 2" means "at least 3". Please unresolve this.

bought Ṁ10 Adam Something uploa... NO

@HandasonTam Ah, I wondered why I would have bet NO on that, I'm not that inattentive.

Unresolved. Recommend you sell some YES @ChristopherRandles if you see this!

cc @Joshua can you unresolve 'adam something'

@strutheo I already did, no need

Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza

Note that since this question was added after Sahar Tartak's eye was grazed by that flag, it does not count for this.

Any of the songs covered in Joker 2 are explicitly revealed
bought Ṁ20 Any of the songs cov... YES

Is the cover from the trailer not explicit enough?

Anyone is hospitalized as a direct result of the student protests about Israel and Gaza

Zero reports of this that I can see, why is it so high?

At least five XKCD comics where there are no stick figures at all
bought Ṁ50 At least five XKCD c... NO

Only 3 so far.

sold Ṁ8 Earthquake 7.5 or hi... YES

@PlasmaBallin There was some uncertainty over whether xkcd.com/2914/ counts, since the stick figures are so small they're hard to distinguish.

If Monday's has no stick figures, it'll come down to whether that one does or doesn't count, which... might have to be resolved via poll or something?

@MugaSofer If you zoom in closely, you can make out arms and legs, so I think they count as stick figures

@PlasmaBallin Yeah IMO they count but that uncertainty's why it's not at 0.

wow i see the one pixel arms lol, didnt notice before