🚧What will Manifold's Big Pivot entail? [ADD RESPONSES]

The Manifold Pivot #Manifold #Manifold Business Future #Manifold Features #Manifold Drama #Pivot Predictions

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6.8K

Ṁ120K

Ṁ33K

May 16

ALL

88%

Grandfathering so that conditional markets created before the pivot can be NAed.

82%

Something related to Manifold’s partner program

74%

Someone other than James, but still Manifold staff explaining what the pivot is.

71%

certain types of markets about certain issues won't be creatable after the pivot in certain scenarios (similar to limited market question on spice market)

60%

Something outside of Manifold’s current scope (resolves to poll)

49%

Market calibration will get worse (excluding markets that resolve entirely within Manifold, like whalebait and "resolve to poll", and also exclude personal ones like the ass-eating market)

46%

Market calibration will get worse overall

39%

Will be delayed a 2nd time beyond May 15th

33%

8 immolations before the end of may 10th at midnight Pacific time

31%

A higher % of manifold deems the pivot to be "sensible" over "silly / foolish" in a poll

15%

redeem some point for gift cards

14%

Something Wikipedian - focusing on limiting contributions to increase quality, blocking low quality things/people/ideas, and/or increasing MM editorial control, reducing the sense of freedom for users. i.e. the opposite x,yt,tiktok

Resolved

YES

change in the mana to USD rate you can buy it for

Resolved

YES

auth / verification of users through cell phones or other means

Resolved

YES

Greater than 5 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement

Resolved

YES

Greater than 10 memes about the pivot posted to the Discord within the first 24 hours of the announcement

Resolved

YES

pivot is officially announced before may starts

Resolved

YES

Cash Prizes

Resolved

YES

No change to the website domain

Resolved

YES

James explaining what the pivot is.

In Austin's farewell post:

James, Stephen, and the rest of the team have a big pivot in store; it seems like a great bet, but not something that I personally feel drawn towards enacting. And so, now feels like a good time to step out.

James made a response:

Manifold may indeed have been trapped in a local maxima, but not for long! We always have another fresh idea, another trick up our sleeves. The latest secret project for Manifold will be big.

/strutheo/will-manifolds-big-pivot-be-announc-523737967640

/strutheo/what-will-be-true-about-spice-the-n

/strutheo/one-year-after-the-pivot-will-over

Get Ṁ200 play money

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26% chance

If Manifold announces real money trading as part of their upcoming pivot, what will be true about it when it launches?

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I know that most of these are waiting for the pivot itself to launch to confirm the details, but this already happened on May 1st—there's no more liquidity subsidies.

bought Ṁ150 Answer #11e8fd7fb528 YES

forgot to tag oops @strutheo

...Is it just me or is anyone else mainly getting bitcoin markets in their feed now? Wow, the pivot has already ruined Manifold. :P

@Najawin the feed is giving a lot of new stuff but also bitcoin yeah. overall better than before at least! theyll keep tweaking the algorithm, i think they said it would show things based on your txn fees as an indicator of interest in topics

@Najawin learning how to block topics has improved my life a thousand times

@strutheo I have never once bet on a bitcoin market. And yeah @Odoacre, I keep telling it not interested, but since I plan on leaving soon if the pivot still happens I don't feel like actually blocking things. Just really weird?

@Najawin you can always unblock it if you feel you need more bitcoin in your life 😂

This is true at the moment (see my comment below for the market)

And furthermore

certain types of markets about certain issues won't be creatable after the pivot in certain scenarios (similar to limited market question on spice market)

bought Ṁ150 certain types of mar... YES

Conditionals are a type of market that will no longer be permitted.

@Panfilo hmm i read this as 'about certain issues' as in war/death/etc

but i also get your interpretation here, since it says 'certain scenarios'

might na or ask a mod

this might need to be NAed - they specifically say its not real money betting, but people are referring to it as shorthand...

@strutheo It's real money betting in spirit, if not in legal terms.

@strutheo Don't be a coward, resolve it YES

@chrisjbillington 😂

A legal fiction so thin it might as well not be there.

@strutheo I am NO on this, and at first I thought it wasn't real-money betting, but now, I think I was wrong and it is.

redeem some point for gift cards

is it confirmed they are doing money only, not giftcards?

bought Ṁ40 Answer #11e8fd7fb528 YES

@strutheo I sold out of this one because it seems unclear—cash is what's confirmed, but the notion doc does off-hand briefly mention gift cards as maybe something in consideration in the future.